Donald Trump has become convinced that Republicans cannot win the midterms, and that a blue wave would effectively end his presidency and confront him with two years of investigations and impeachment proceedings. He needs martial law as an excuse to cancel the midterms. So America is on a clock now.
— Seth Abramson (@sethabramson.bsky.social) June 8, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Do I believe that Democratic midterm victories "would effectively end" the second Trump presidency? No -- Trump will just keep issuing executive orders and use the right-wing media to discredit any Democratic investigations, while he relies on the fact that Democrats will never be able to get 67 Senate votes to convict him if he's impeached.
Do I believe that President Trump is prepared to cancel elections in 2026 and/or 2028? Sure, if he thinks the result will make him look like a loser.
If you were reasonably certain that we'd have genuine elections in 2026 and 2028, I hope you realize now that we really might not.
— Steve M. (@stevemnomoremister.bsky.social) June 8, 2025 at 10:36 AM
However, I don't believe he's already given up on winning them legitimately. Trump is a lifelong believer in the Power of Positive Thinking. And while a recent poll from AtlasIntel shows Democrats with a nine-point lead in 2026 congressional elections, other polls see the race very differently -- John McLaughlin, one of Trump's pollsters, has Republicans leading by 4.
Deploying the National Guard and/or the military is simply what Trump believes presidents should do -- like an eight-year-old boy, he thinks being in charge of the U.S. means you can and should use all your toy soldiers to vanquish your enemies all the time. The idea of doing this delights him so much that he even recommended it last October as a response to hypothetical unrest on Election Day, when Joe Biden would still be president. CNN reported:
Former President Donald Trump suggested using the military to handle what he called “the enemy from within” on Election Day, saying that he isn’t worried about chaos from his supporters or foreign actors, but instead from “radical left lunatics.”If you believe that what's taking place now was done to prepare America for martial law in November 2026, the question that follows is: Why so early? And why prepare Americans for anything? Shock and awe has been Trump's M.O. since Inauguration Day. He doesn't lay groundwork. He just acts.
“I think the bigger problem are the people from within. We have some very bad people. We have some sick people. Radical left lunatics,” Trump said told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo in an interview on “Sunday Morning Futures.”
“I think it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen,” he added.
It seems far more likely to me that Stephen Miller was simply frustrated by what he saw as the slow pace of anti-immigrant cruelty, and he decided to up the ante by ordering his goons to be more aggressive and provocative. Trump was on board because immigration is his best issue, according to polls, and he hates brown people, too, though I don't think he dines on hate the way Miller does. (ABC's Terry Moran is right about that.) It's also possible that Miller is frustrated because his wife has followed Elon Musk back to Texas, where she's working as his PR flack.
In any case, Miller's decision to make the raids more intrusive and provocative could have happened at any time, and I believe Trump would have responded the same way. If he decides to cancel elections in 2026, he'll just do it, with no advance warning.
*****
Here's a series of posts that reveal a major divide in America:
Worth bearing in mind that illegal entry is a misdemeanor and being unlawfully present in the country is not even a criminal offense, but a civil one. This is the equivalent of saying we need to torch the Constitution & send in the SWAT team to catch jaywalkers & people with overdue library books.
— Julian Sanchez (@normative.bsky.social) June 9, 2025 at 1:15 AM
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What Miller and Mike Cernovich are saying here is what Trump says every time he asserts that a crackdown on immigrants is necessary because otherwise "we won't have a country."
To the GOP's exurban and rural base, America is a white Christian heterosexual monoculture -- anyone who doesn't fit the mold threatens our national identity. As a New York City resident for nearly half a century, and a Bostonian before that, I find this preposterous. I'm sure the Angelenos who are facing down Miller's stormtroopers feel the same way.
It's often said that snooty urban elitist Democrats don't understand Republican voters' culture views, and while there may be some truth to that, they don't understand ours either. From our perspective, America has a strong and enduring culture that isn't threatened by immigration -- we like burgers, we like football, we like guns, we invented rock music and R&B and jazz and hip-hop and Hollywood. And our cities have strong identities, too. Being multi-ethnic is a big part of that identity. There's nothing more New York than drunk Wall Streeters stumbling out of club and ordering chicken over rice with white sauce and hot sauce from a halal cart. If you're from L.A., plug in your own equivalent.
Republicans voters think America is the greatest country in the world -- and also believe it's so fragile that a few immigrant landscapers can completely dismantle it. But some of us realize that it's not a national emergency to pass a person on the street who's not speaking English, just as it's not a national emergency to share the country with people who are trans or Muslim, or members of some other group to which we don't belong. Twenty years ago, Republicans would warn that Muslims want to force everyone in America to practice "Sharia law"; now, they warn that schools are forcing children to be trans. Monoculture-dwelling Republicans want to force the rest of us to be cis, straight, and Christian, so they think we want a similar level of conformity. But we don't agree with them that the country will die unless everyone is the same.
*****
A Bluesky user noticed this:
I see signs that Trump and Musk are already in an agreement. Just look at Musk's posts and note the ones he deleted that were against Trump and his dystopian government.
— Aurea (@mariaurea.bsky.social) June 9, 2025 at 7:52 AM
It's true -- and Musk's olive branch is a series of tweets and retweets on immigration:
We know that Musk has deleted some tweets critical of Trump, and that aides to both men spoke on Friday. Musk clearly wants Daddy to love him again (or at least not to withdraw federal contracts from his companies). Whatever is going on, it's clear that Musk doesn't believe he has the upper hand and is suing for peace, hypocritically using immigrant-phobia to try to get back on Trump's good side. We'll see if it works.
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